每周全球金融观察 | 第136篇：硬着陆、软着陆，抑或不着陆

     在2022年的下半年里，市场对硬着陆的情况进行了定价，担心一系列快速加息将不可避免地扼杀经济增长。许多人认为，急剧倒挂的收益率曲线就是所谓的"煤矿里的金丝雀"。在2022年年底，硬着陆的情况已经迁移到软着陆，有证据表明通胀率在消退，加息的步伐在放缓。 

     2月3日的非农就业报告（1月份创造了517,000个就业岗位）大大好于预期，使硬着陆和软着陆的情况烟消云散，结束了关于美国即将出现衰退的争论。本周的零售销售数据（1月+3%）加强了经济的潜在力量。截至2月16日，亚特兰大2月实时GDPNow模型预测2023年第一季度GDP为+2.5%。

     上周末我意外地跳过了一篇文章（我3年来的第一次中国之行被延长）。在我旅行之前（第135条），我强调了2月3日就业报告之后的全球固定收益重新定价，这对固定收益资产类别来说意义重大。

     自2月3日以来，固定收益市场进一步重新定价，以下是最新的表格：

     本周美联储官员发表的一些鹰派评论，促使利率前景重新定价。一些人呼吁在3月加息50bp。截至周五，CME期货定价为3月22日加息25bp的概率为82%，5月3日加息25bp的概率为77%，6月14日再加息25bp的概率为53%，联邦基金终端利率为5.25%-5.50%。

     请参考下表，了解2023年至今的表现与往年的对比：

所有数据截至17年2月，*1：截至16年2月

我们该何去何从？

通货膨胀、货币政策和利率

     本周，1月CPI通胀率与市场预期完全一致，1月CPI同比+6.4%（12月为6.5%）。1月核心CPI同比为5.6%，12月为5.7%。然而，1月份的月环比增长了0.5%，12月份为-0.1%。好消息是，CPI指数呈下降趋势。坏消息是，下降的趋势已经放缓。CPI通胀的粘性部分是在住房和租金方面。 

     这两周，利率和固定收益市场重新定价，10年期美国国债收益率从3.40%（2月3日就业数据前）上升到周五的3.82%。更值得注意的是，3个月、6个月和12个月美国国债的收益率处于2007年中期（全球金融危机之前）以来的最高水平。

     我想强调的是，长时间的高利率与我们在2022年看到的一系列快速加息截然不同。与2022年年初相比，更高的收益率（和票面回报）是投资级和高收益固定收益的顺风，我们应该期待2023年所有固定收益资产类别的正回报。

美国国债收益率处于2007年中期以来的最高水平：

     在我之前的文章(第136篇)中，我提到过”2年期国债在4.29%，美联储基金利率在4.75%，市场最好对今年年底/明年年初降息50bp或更多的定价是正确的，否则2年期美国国债将是一个令人尖叫的空头”。上周五，2年期美国国债收益率收于4.72%。顺便说一句，2022年伊始，2年期美国国债收益率为0.76%。

     顺便说一句，2023年12月的隐含联邦基金期货已经从2月3日就业数据公布前的4.46%上涨到周五的5.13%。

全球股票市场

     2月份至今，许多股票市场进行了调整，特别是新兴市场和亚洲股票。科技板块是个例外，纳斯达克指数在1月份上涨了10.68%之后，2月份至今上涨了1.75%。

     我想问一个问题；持续的高利率或经济衰退是否会给股票资产类别带来更高的风险/回报率？ 经济增长是否会成为股票的顺风？ 

理性预期还是非理性繁荣？

     我们应该考虑一种没有着陆的情况，即通货膨胀没有降温到（甚至接近）美联储2%的目标（核心PCE平减指数为4.4%），同时经济继续增长，在美联储试图抑制通货膨胀的过程中，利率仍然升高。要么美联储接受更高的通胀目标（3%是新的2%？），要么利率有进一步走高的空间并危及经济增长。这的确是一个艰难的选择。

     5%的无风险回报对所有风险资产来说是一个很高的标准。告别TINA（没有替代品），欢迎TARA（有合理的替代品）。

     在这种情况下，我们应如何调整我们的资产配置和投资？

作者：蔡清福

Alvin Chua 

2月18日星期六

东亚和中国股票市场的表现与全球同行相比：

截至2023年2月17日的数据

Hard-landing vs soft-landing. How about no-landing?

     During the 2nd half of 2022, market was pricing in a hard-landing scenario, fearing the rapid series of interest rate hikes would inevitably choke off economic growth. Many argued, the sharply inverted yield curve is the so-call “canary in the coal mine”. Towards the end of 2022, the hard-landing scenario migrated to soft-landing one, with evidence of receding inflation, and slowing pace of rate hikes. 

     The MUCH better than expected non-farm payroll report (with 517,000 jobs created in the month of Jan) on Feb 3 vaporized the hard-landing and soft-landing scenarios andput an end to the debate about an imminent recession in the US. The retails sales figure (+3% in Jan) this week reinforced the underlying strength in the economy. As of Feb 16, the Atlanta Fed real-time GDPNow model is forecasting +2.5% GDP for Q1 2023. 

     I unexpectedly skipped an article last weekend (my first trip to China in 3 years was extended). Prior to my trip (in article 135), I highlighted the global fixed income repricing after the employment report on Feb 3, which was significant in the context of the fixed income asset class.

     The fixed income market has repriced further since Feb 3. The following is an updated table:

     Several hawkish comments by a chorus of Fed officials this week contributed to the interest rate outlook being repriced. Some are calling for 50bp rate hike in March. As of Friday, the CME futures was pricing in an 82% probability of a 25bp rate hike on March 22, 77% probability of a 25bp rate hike on May 3, and another 53% probability of another 25bp hike on June 14, with the terminal Fed funds rate at 5.25%-5.50%.

     Please refer to the following table for YTD 2023 performance vs prior years: 

All data as of Feb 17, *1: as of Feb 16

Where do we go from here? 

Inflation, Monetary Policy and Interest Rates:

     This week, the January CPI inflation was the same as the market had expected, with the Jan CPI +6.4% YoY (vs 6.5% in Dec). Jan Core CPI was 5.6% YoY vs 5.7%. However, Jan MoM was a 0.5% increase vs -0.1% in Dec. The good news is that the CPI is on a declining trend. The bad news, the decline has slowed. The sticky part of the CPI inflation is in housing and rent equivalent.

     The interest rate (and fixed income) market has repriced these two weeks, with the 10-yr UST yield risen from 3.40% (before the Feb 3 employment data) to 3.82% as of Friday. More notably, the yields for 3-month, 6-month and 12-month US T-bill are at the highest level since mid-2007 (before the GFC). 

     I would like to emphasize that an extended period of elevated interest rates is VERY different from the rapid series of rate hikes we saw in 2022. The much higher yield (and coupon return) as compared with the start of 2022 is a tailwind for investment grade and high yield fixed income, and we should expect positive returns in 2023 across fixed income asset classes.

US T-bill yield at highest level since mid-2007:

     In my previous article (#135), I mentioned“With 2-yr treasury at 4.29% and Fed Funds rate at 4.75%, the market better be right for pricing in 50bp or more rate cut(s) by the end of this year/early next year, otherwise the 2-yr UST will be a screaming SHORT”. On Friday, the 2-yr US treasury yield ended at 4.72%. Incidentally, the 2-yr US Treasury yield started 2022 at 0.76%. 

     Incidentally, the Dec 2023 implied Fed Funds future has gone from 4.465% before Feb 3 employment data, to 5.13% on Friday.

The Global Equity Market:

     Many equity markets, particularly EM and Asian equities, have adjusted so far in February. The tech sectors were the exception, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.75% so far in February, after a 10.68% gain in Jan.

     I would like to ask a question: would persistently elevated interest rate or recession pose a higher risk/return for the equity asset class? Would economic growth be a tailwind for equities?

Rational Expectation or Irrational Exuberance?

     We should consider a no-landing scenario in which inflation does not cool to (or even near) the Fed’s 2% target (core-PCE deflator was 4.4%) while economic growth continues, and interest rates remain elevated amid the Fed's attempts to tamp inflation. Either the Fed accepts a higher inflation target (3% is the new 2%?) or the interest rate has further room to go higher and jeopardizes economic growth. It will be a difficult decision to make.

     A 5% risk free return would be a high bar for all risk-assets. Say good bye to TINA (there is no alternatives) and welcome TARA (there are reasonable alternatives).

     How shall we adjust our asset allocation and investments under such a scenario?

By Alvin Chua 

Saturday February 18

East Asia and China equity markets performance vs the global peers:

Data as of Feb 17, 2023